Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for an Isolated Area using Two Different Approaches

  • Asif Islam Assistant Manager (Design) Planning & Development Division Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) Ltd.
  • Samiur Rahman Hasib Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University
  • Md. Shariful Islam Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)

Abstract

Electricity demand forecasting of an off-grid area, where no previous load data is available, is an important prerequisite for power system expansion planning. Bangladesh is a small as well as densely populated country in South Asia with a large portion of the population living under poverty line. About 48.5% of the total population has access in grid electricity. Uninterruptable power supply is one of the most important parameter for future development which ends up with a decision of obvious expansion of present grid coverage. This paper represents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth of an area depends. The forecasting has been done through inverse matrix calculation and linear regression analysis method. It has been found that the demand data, calculated from two different approaches, are close enough which spans the reliability of the proposed method. This method can be applicable for short term load forecasting of any isolated area throughout the world.

Author Biographies

Asif Islam, Assistant Manager (Design) Planning & Development Division Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) Ltd.
Assistant Manager (Design), Planning & Development Division, Power Grid Company of Bangladesh (PGCB) Ltd., Ramna, DhakaM.Sc. in Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)
Samiur Rahman Hasib, Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University
B.Sc. in Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University
Md. Shariful Islam, Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)
Netwrok Engineer in Robi-AXIATA BangladeshM.Sc. in Electrical & Electronic Engineering (EEE), Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology (BUET)

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Published
2013-06-16
How to Cite
ISLAM, Asif; HASIB, Samiur Rahman; ISLAM, Md. Shariful. Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for an Isolated Area using Two Different Approaches. Journal of Power Technologies, [S.l.], v. 93, n. 4, p. 185--193, june 2013. ISSN 2083-4195. Available at: <https://papers.itc.pw.edu.pl/index.php/JPT/article/view/411>. Date accessed: 28 mar. 2024.
Section
Interdisciplinary

Keywords

Load Forecasting, Regression Analysis, Inverse Matrix, Isolated Area

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