Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for an Isolated Area using Two Different Approaches
Abstract
Electricity demand forecasting of an off-grid area, where no previous load data is available, is an important prerequisite for power system expansion planning. Bangladesh is a small as well as densely populated country in South Asia with a large portion of the population living under poverty line. About 48.5% of the total population has access in grid electricity. Uninterruptable power supply is one of the most important parameter for future development which ends up with a decision of obvious expansion of present grid coverage. This paper represents an analysis to forecast the electricity demand of an isolated island in Bangladesh where past history of electrical load demand is not available. The analysis is based on the identification of factors on which electrical load growth of an area depends. The forecasting has been done through inverse matrix calculation and linear regression analysis method. It has been found that the demand data, calculated from two different approaches, are close enough which spans the reliability of the proposed method. This method can be applicable for short term load forecasting of any isolated area throughout the world.References
[1] G. Gross and F. D. Galianan, “Short-Term Load Forecasting,” Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 75, No. 12, 1987, pp. 1558-1572.
[2] D. Park, M. Al-Sharkawi, R. Marks, A. Atlas and M. Damborg, “Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1991, pp. 442-449.
[3] S. Sachdeva and C. M. Verma, “Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Methods,” Proceeding of Joint International Conference on Power System Technology and IEEE Power India Conference, New Delhi, 12-15 October 2008, pp. 1-4
[4] B. E. Psiloglou, C. Giannakopoulos, S. Majithia and M. Petrakis, “Factors Affecting Electricity Demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A Comparative Assessment,” Energy, Vol. 34, No. 11, 2009, pp. 1855-1863
[5] A. D. Papalxopoulos and T. C. Hiterbeg, “A Regression- Based Approach to Short-Term Load Forecasting,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1990, pp. 1535-1547.
[6] S. I. Khan and A. Islam, “Performance analysis of solar water heater” Smart Grid and Renewable Energy Vol. 2, No. 4, 2011, 396–398.
[7] P. Chiradeja, “Benefit of Distributed Generation: A Line Loss Reduction Analysis,” Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition, Asia and Pacific, Bangkok, 2005, pp. 1-5.
[8] R. K. Jaganathan, T. K. Saha, “Voltage Stability Analysis of Grid Connected Embedded Generators”, Proceedings of the Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference-AUPEC 2004, Brisbane, 26-29 September 2004
[9] J. O. Jaber, M. S. Mohsen, S. D. Probert and M. Alees, “Future Electricity Demands and Green House-Gas Emissions in Jordan,” Applied Energy, Vol. 69, No. 1, 2001, pp. 1-18.
[10] D. C. Sansom, T. K. Saha, “Energy Constrained Generation Dispatch based on Price Forecasts Including Expected Values and Risk”, IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Denver, Colorado, USA, June 6-10, 2004
[11] A. Islam , S. I. Khan and A. Hoque, “Detection of mechanical deformation in old aged power transformer using cross correlation co-efficient analysis method” Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2011, 585–591.
[12] Jiang, H. L., Tang, X. J., Dong, Z, Y., Saha, T. K., “An Advanced Method for Eliminating Impacts from Frequency Deviations in Power System Signal Processing”, Electric Power Systems Research, Volume 67, Issue 3, December 2003, Pages 177-184.
[13] H. Morais, P. K. P. Faria, Z. A. Vale and H. M. Khodr, “Optimal Scheduling of a Renewable Micro-Grid in an Isolated Load Area Using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2010, pp. 151-156
[14] A. McDonald and L. Schrattenholzer, “Learning Rates for Energy Technologies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 29, No. 4, 2001, pp. 255-261.
[15] A. P. Leite and C. L. T. Borges, “Probability Wind Farms Generation Model for Reliability Studies Applied to Bra- zilian Sites,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 21, No. 4, 2006, pp. 1493-1501
[16] Z. M. Hasib, J. Hossain, S. Biswas, A. Islam, “Bio-diesel from mustard oil: A renewable alternative fuel for small diesel engines.” Modern Mechanical Engineering, Vol. 1, No. -2, 2011, 77–83
[17] G. T. Heinemann, D. A. Nordman and E. C. Plant, “The Relationship between Summer Weather and Summer Loads,” IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-85, No. 11, 1966, pp. 1144-1154.
[18] A. N. Celik, “On the Distributional Parameters Used in Assessment of the Suitability of Wind Speed Probability Density Functions,” Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 45, No. 11, 2004, pp. 1735-1747.
[19] K. L. Wong, M. F. Rahmat, “Feasibility Study of Leakage Current Shunting Method based on Ladder Network Model”, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 25, Issue. 2, 2010.
[20] M. Momani, "Factors Affecting Electricity Demand in Jordan," Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 5 No. 1, 2013, pp. 50-58.
[21] C. Cartalis, A. Synodinou, M. Proedrou, A. Tsangrassoulis and M. Santamouris, “Modifications in Energy Demand in Urban Areas as a Result of Climate Changes: An Assessment for the Southeast Mediterranean Region,” Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 42, No. 14, 2001, pp. 1647-1656.
[22] M. Bessec and J. Fouquau, “The Non-Linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: A Threshold Panel Approach,” Energy Economics, Vol. 30, No. 5, 2008, pp. 2705-2721.
[2] D. Park, M. Al-Sharkawi, R. Marks, A. Atlas and M. Damborg, “Electric Load Forecasting Using an Artificial Neural Network,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, No. 2, 1991, pp. 442-449.
[3] S. Sachdeva and C. M. Verma, “Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Methods,” Proceeding of Joint International Conference on Power System Technology and IEEE Power India Conference, New Delhi, 12-15 October 2008, pp. 1-4
[4] B. E. Psiloglou, C. Giannakopoulos, S. Majithia and M. Petrakis, “Factors Affecting Electricity Demand in Athens, Greece and London, UK: A Comparative Assessment,” Energy, Vol. 34, No. 11, 2009, pp. 1855-1863
[5] A. D. Papalxopoulos and T. C. Hiterbeg, “A Regression- Based Approach to Short-Term Load Forecasting,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1990, pp. 1535-1547.
[6] S. I. Khan and A. Islam, “Performance analysis of solar water heater” Smart Grid and Renewable Energy Vol. 2, No. 4, 2011, 396–398.
[7] P. Chiradeja, “Benefit of Distributed Generation: A Line Loss Reduction Analysis,” Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exhibition, Asia and Pacific, Bangkok, 2005, pp. 1-5.
[8] R. K. Jaganathan, T. K. Saha, “Voltage Stability Analysis of Grid Connected Embedded Generators”, Proceedings of the Australasian Universities Power Engineering Conference-AUPEC 2004, Brisbane, 26-29 September 2004
[9] J. O. Jaber, M. S. Mohsen, S. D. Probert and M. Alees, “Future Electricity Demands and Green House-Gas Emissions in Jordan,” Applied Energy, Vol. 69, No. 1, 2001, pp. 1-18.
[10] D. C. Sansom, T. K. Saha, “Energy Constrained Generation Dispatch based on Price Forecasts Including Expected Values and Risk”, IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting, Denver, Colorado, USA, June 6-10, 2004
[11] A. Islam , S. I. Khan and A. Hoque, “Detection of mechanical deformation in old aged power transformer using cross correlation co-efficient analysis method” Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 3, No. 4, 2011, 585–591.
[12] Jiang, H. L., Tang, X. J., Dong, Z, Y., Saha, T. K., “An Advanced Method for Eliminating Impacts from Frequency Deviations in Power System Signal Processing”, Electric Power Systems Research, Volume 67, Issue 3, December 2003, Pages 177-184.
[13] H. Morais, P. K. P. Faria, Z. A. Vale and H. M. Khodr, “Optimal Scheduling of a Renewable Micro-Grid in an Isolated Load Area Using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming,” Renewable Energy, Vol. 35, No. 1, 2010, pp. 151-156
[14] A. McDonald and L. Schrattenholzer, “Learning Rates for Energy Technologies,” Energy Policy, Vol. 29, No. 4, 2001, pp. 255-261.
[15] A. P. Leite and C. L. T. Borges, “Probability Wind Farms Generation Model for Reliability Studies Applied to Bra- zilian Sites,” IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 21, No. 4, 2006, pp. 1493-1501
[16] Z. M. Hasib, J. Hossain, S. Biswas, A. Islam, “Bio-diesel from mustard oil: A renewable alternative fuel for small diesel engines.” Modern Mechanical Engineering, Vol. 1, No. -2, 2011, 77–83
[17] G. T. Heinemann, D. A. Nordman and E. C. Plant, “The Relationship between Summer Weather and Summer Loads,” IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, Vol. PAS-85, No. 11, 1966, pp. 1144-1154.
[18] A. N. Celik, “On the Distributional Parameters Used in Assessment of the Suitability of Wind Speed Probability Density Functions,” Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 45, No. 11, 2004, pp. 1735-1747.
[19] K. L. Wong, M. F. Rahmat, “Feasibility Study of Leakage Current Shunting Method based on Ladder Network Model”, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 25, Issue. 2, 2010.
[20] M. Momani, "Factors Affecting Electricity Demand in Jordan," Energy and Power Engineering, Vol. 5 No. 1, 2013, pp. 50-58.
[21] C. Cartalis, A. Synodinou, M. Proedrou, A. Tsangrassoulis and M. Santamouris, “Modifications in Energy Demand in Urban Areas as a Result of Climate Changes: An Assessment for the Southeast Mediterranean Region,” Energy Conversion and Management, Vol. 42, No. 14, 2001, pp. 1647-1656.
[22] M. Bessec and J. Fouquau, “The Non-Linear Link between Electricity Consumption and Temperature in Europe: A Threshold Panel Approach,” Energy Economics, Vol. 30, No. 5, 2008, pp. 2705-2721.
Published
2013-06-16
How to Cite
ISLAM, Asif; HASIB, Samiur Rahman; ISLAM, Md. Shariful.
Short Term Electricity Demand Forecasting for an Isolated Area using Two Different Approaches.
Journal of Power Technologies, [S.l.], v. 93, n. 4, p. 185--193, june 2013.
ISSN 2083-4195.
Available at: <https://papers.itc.pw.edu.pl/index.php/JPT/article/view/411>. Date accessed: 21 dec. 2024.
Issue
Section
Interdisciplinary
Keywords
Load Forecasting, Regression Analysis, Inverse Matrix, Isolated Area
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
