Security Measure of Traditional Fossil Energy in China Based on Combination Weighting of Game Theory–Catastrophe Progression Model

Abstract

The security level of traditional fossil energy sources is closely related to national development, particularly amid a complex and volatile international environment and the rising demand for global environmental governance. This study addressed China’s traditional fossil energy security, considering internal factors, such as system structures, and external threats. A positive–negative two-directional evaluation index system including five aspects—resource, market, efficiency, environment, and economy—was proposed. This system integrates an index weighting method that combines the anti-entropy weight method and level-based weighting assessment method. A security measure evaluation method for Chinese traditional fossil energy based on the catastrophe progression model was also established. The security measure for three traditional fossil energy resources—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—was studied. Results show that under the hard constraints of “carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” in China, the clean and efficient utilization of coal is strategically vital significance. Optimizing coal use leverages China’s resource advantages, reduces pressure on petroleum resources, ensures energy security, and protects the ecological environment. The overall security level of China’s major fossil energy resources—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—presents an evident upward trend, indicating an improvement in the security status of China’s energy.