Polish energy system without fossil fuels and nuclear energy

Abstract

This study examines the feasibility of transforming Poland's energy system to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 without relying on fossil fuels or nuclear power. In alignment with the European Union's climate goals, this research investigates both the heating and electricity sectors to identify viable pathways for this transition. The analysis includes a detailed evaluation of renewable energy technologies, energy storage solutions, and system integration strategies.
Key findings indicate that heat pumps, biomass, and solar thermal systems will play significant roles in meeting heating demands. For individual heating, heat pumps are projected to cover approximately 70% of the demand by 2050. In urban areas, combined heat and power (CHP) systems utilising renewable sources such as hydrogen will be crucial for efficient energy use.
In the electricity sector, the study explores two scenarios: a conservative and an optimistic approach to wind and solar energy development. The conservative scenario estimates wind power contributing 100 TWh and solar power 150 TWh by 2050, while the optimistic scenario projects up to 209 TWh from wind power, reducing the reliance on solar installations. The integration of large-scale energy storage, with capacities ranging from 16 TWh to 60 TWh, is identified as essential for balancing the intermittent nature of renewable sources.
The research emphasises the importance of regulatory support, continued investment in research and development, and public awareness to facilitate this transition. By implementing these strategies, Poland can achieve a sustainable and resilient energy future, setting a precedent for other nations aiming for climate neutrality