Long-term prediction of underground gas storage user gas flow nominations

  • Teresa Kurek Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering.
  • Konrad Wojdan Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Nowowiejska 21/25 00-665 Warszawa – Poland
  • Konrad Świrski Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, Nowowiejska 21/25 00-665 Warszawa – Poland

Abstract

Many companies operating on the natural gas market use natural gas storage to balance production and transport capacities with major variations in gas demand. This paper presents an approach to predicting users' gas flow nomination in underground gas storage by different users.  A one-year prediction horizon is considered with weekly data resolution. Basic models show that whereas for the great majority of users we can predict nomination based only on weather data and technical parameters, for some users additional macro-economic data significantly improved prediction accuracy. Various modeling techniques such as linear regression, autoregressive exogenous model and Artificial Neural Network were used to develop prediction models. Results show that for most users an Artificial Neural Network provides optimal accuracy, indicating the non-linearity of the relationship between input and output variables. The models developed are intended to be used as support for facility operation decisions and gas storage product portfolio modifications.

Author Biography

Teresa Kurek, Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering.
PhD Student at Institute of Heat Engineering, Faculty of Power and Aeronautical Engineering.

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Published
2020-01-17
How to Cite
KUREK, Teresa; WOJDAN, Konrad; ŚWIRSKI, Konrad. Long-term prediction of underground gas storage user gas flow nominations. Journal of Power Technologies, [S.l.], v. 99, n. 4, p. 272–280, jan. 2020. ISSN 2083-4195. Available at: <https://papers.itc.pw.edu.pl/index.php/JPT/article/view/1598>. Date accessed: 11 dec. 2024.
Section
Energy Conversion and Storage

Keywords

underground gas storage, long term forecasting, artificial neural networks, prediction models, demand forecasting

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