Energy scenarios for Poland-a comparison of PRIMES and TIMES-PL modeling results
Abstract
The aim of this paper was to compare the results of energy scenarios, which were prepared by the use of PRIMES and TIMES-PL energy models for Poland. Both models have been designed for modelling the mid- and long-term development of the energy system. The paper briefly describes the PRIMES and TIMES methodology explaining both the similarities and differences of approaches in relation to modelling the power supply. Four scenarios were analysed in this study: (i) PRIMES-REF, (ii) TSAP-REF, (iii) TIMES-REF, (iv) TIMES-NUC. Although these scenarios were elaborated with the use of different modelling tools there are many analogies in the evolution of the Polish power system up to 2050. As a consequence of EU climate policy and rising carbon prices within the European Union's Emissions Trading System (ETS) we observe a fuel and technology switch towards less carbon intensive options in all scenarios. The comparison is most adequate with PRIMES-REF and TIMES-NUC due to them having the best match in modelling assumptions and input parameters. In both, electricity generation from solid fuel declines throughout the projection period. This decline is more sharp before 2030 and stabilises thereafter. The relative share of fuels in the electricity generation mix by 2050 is not much different in both scenarios. Solid fuels constitute more than 45 %. The biggest differences were found in gas, nuclear, wind and solar. The differences for nuclear, wind and solar can be explained by the system-wide constraints applied in TIMES-PL. Increased use of gas in PRIMES-REF is presumably more of a methodological nature. CO2 emissions have a similar, decreasing trend reaching ca. 45 Mt in 2050. In both scenarios ca. 39 % of electricity generated in thermal power plants in 2050 comes from units equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The study confirmed the robustness of the TIMES-PL model and showed that it can be used to provide valuable insights contributing to the development of Polish energy policy.References
EC: EU Energy, Transport And Ghg Emissions Trends To 2050. Reference Scenario 2013. E3M-Lab, IIASA, EuroCARE Luxenburg, 2014.
Gawlik, L., (ed): Coal for Polish energy sector in 2050 perspective – scenario analyses. Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Wydawnictwo Instytutu Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN, p. 1-299, Katowice, 2013 (in Polish).
Wyrwa, A., Pluta, M., Skoneczny, S., and Mirowski, T., Modelling the Mid-term Development of an Energy System with the use of a Technology Explicit Partial Equilibrium Model [in:] E-science on Distributed Computing Infrastructure: PLGrid Plus2014, Springer-Verlag GmbH. p. 489-503.
Capros, P., et al., Description of models and scenarios used to assess European decarbonisation pathways. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(3–4)2014, p. 220-230.
Loulou, R., ETSAP-TIAM: The TIMES integrated assessment model. Part II: Mathematical formulation. Computational Management Science, 5(1-2)2008, p. 41-66.
Vaillancourt, K., Labriet, M., Loulou, R., and Waaub, J.-P., The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model. Energy Policy, 36(7)2008, p. 2296-2307.
Capros, P., et al., Analysis of the EU policy package on climate change and renewables. Energy Policy, 39(3)2011, p. 1476-1485.
Fragkos, P., Kouvaritakis, N., and Capros, P., Model-based analysis of the future strategies for the MENA energy system. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(1)2013, p. 59-70.
Cosmi, C., et al., A model for representing the Italian energy system: The NEEDS-TIMES experience. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(4)2009, p. 763-776.
Amann, M., et al., Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications. Environmental Modelling and Software, 26(12)2011, p. 1489-1501.
Wyrwa, A., Pluta, M., and Zyśk, J. Modeling the mid-term development of the energy system in Poland with the use of TIMES-PL model. ENERDAY conference on energy economics and technology: energy policies and market design in Europe, Dresden, 2013.
Kannan, R. and Turton, H., A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 18(3)2013, p. 325-343.
ECMWF: Provides medium-range weather forecast support to European meteorological organizations.
JRC: Photovoltaic Geographical Information System. 2013.
DAS: Optimal Polish energy mix by 2060, 2013, Strategic Analysis Department, Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland, Warsaw, 2013 (in Polish).
EPRI: Program on Technology Innovation: Electricty Use in the Electric Sector. Opportunities to Enhance Electric Energy Efficiency in the Production and Delivery of Electricty. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 2011.
Suwala, W., Modelling adaptation of the coal industry to sustainability conditions. Energy, 33(7)2008, p. 1015-1026.
European Commission, Energy Road map 2050. Impact Assessment, SEC(2011) 1565/2, ed. C.S.W. Paper, 2011.
Szurlej, A. and Janusz, P., Natural gas economy in the United States and European markets. Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management, 29(4)2013, p. 77–94
Gawlik, L., (ed): Coal for Polish energy sector in 2050 perspective – scenario analyses. Mining Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Wydawnictwo Instytutu Gospodarki Surowcami Mineralnymi i Energią PAN, p. 1-299, Katowice, 2013 (in Polish).
Wyrwa, A., Pluta, M., Skoneczny, S., and Mirowski, T., Modelling the Mid-term Development of an Energy System with the use of a Technology Explicit Partial Equilibrium Model [in:] E-science on Distributed Computing Infrastructure: PLGrid Plus2014, Springer-Verlag GmbH. p. 489-503.
Capros, P., et al., Description of models and scenarios used to assess European decarbonisation pathways. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(3–4)2014, p. 220-230.
Loulou, R., ETSAP-TIAM: The TIMES integrated assessment model. Part II: Mathematical formulation. Computational Management Science, 5(1-2)2008, p. 41-66.
Vaillancourt, K., Labriet, M., Loulou, R., and Waaub, J.-P., The role of nuclear energy in long-term climate scenarios: An analysis with the World-TIMES model. Energy Policy, 36(7)2008, p. 2296-2307.
Capros, P., et al., Analysis of the EU policy package on climate change and renewables. Energy Policy, 39(3)2011, p. 1476-1485.
Fragkos, P., Kouvaritakis, N., and Capros, P., Model-based analysis of the future strategies for the MENA energy system. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(1)2013, p. 59-70.
Cosmi, C., et al., A model for representing the Italian energy system: The NEEDS-TIMES experience. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(4)2009, p. 763-776.
Amann, M., et al., Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications. Environmental Modelling and Software, 26(12)2011, p. 1489-1501.
Wyrwa, A., Pluta, M., and Zyśk, J. Modeling the mid-term development of the energy system in Poland with the use of TIMES-PL model. ENERDAY conference on energy economics and technology: energy policies and market design in Europe, Dresden, 2013.
Kannan, R. and Turton, H., A Long-Term Electricity Dispatch Model with the TIMES Framework. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 18(3)2013, p. 325-343.
ECMWF: Provides medium-range weather forecast support to European meteorological organizations.
JRC: Photovoltaic Geographical Information System. 2013.
DAS: Optimal Polish energy mix by 2060, 2013, Strategic Analysis Department, Chancellery of the Prime Minister of Poland, Warsaw, 2013 (in Polish).
EPRI: Program on Technology Innovation: Electricty Use in the Electric Sector. Opportunities to Enhance Electric Energy Efficiency in the Production and Delivery of Electricty. Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, 2011.
Suwala, W., Modelling adaptation of the coal industry to sustainability conditions. Energy, 33(7)2008, p. 1015-1026.
European Commission, Energy Road map 2050. Impact Assessment, SEC(2011) 1565/2, ed. C.S.W. Paper, 2011.
Szurlej, A. and Janusz, P., Natural gas economy in the United States and European markets. Gospodarka Surowcami Mineralnymi - Mineral Resources Management, 29(4)2013, p. 77–94
Published
2015-07-02
How to Cite
WYRWA, Artur et al.
Energy scenarios for Poland-a comparison of PRIMES and TIMES-PL modeling results.
Journal of Power Technologies, [S.l.], v. 95, n. 5, p. 100--106, july 2015.
ISSN 2083-4195.
Available at: <https://papers.itc.pw.edu.pl/index.php/JPT/article/view/648>. Date accessed: 19 apr. 2024.
Section
Polish Energy Mix 2014
Keywords
power system; modelling; energy security; TIMES-PL; PRIMES; Poland
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
