Multiparameter Analysis of Energy Generation and LCOE for the Planned Baltica II Wind Farm

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive multi-parameter analysis of key factors influencing the annual energy production (AEP) and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the planned Baltica II offshore wind farm. The analysis considers variations in the wake decay constant (kw), turbine spacing (Dist), interest rate (i_rate), and turbine lifespan, resulting in 81 evaluated scenarios. The results demonstrate that wake effects significantly impact wind speed reductions across turbine rows, affecting overall energy yield. Higher wake decay constants and increased turbine spacing contribute to lower velocity deficits, enhancing energy production efficiency. The findings highlight that AEP is independent of interest rates, whereas LCOE is strongly affected by financial assumptions. The estimated minimum LCOE for Baltica II is projected to range between 143 $/MWh and 191 $/MWh, which is significantly higher than conventional fossil fuel and nuclear power generation costs. These findings emphasize the financial and operational challenges of offshore wind energy and the importance of optimizing wake effects, turbine placement, and financial assumptions for long-term feasibility.