Long-term prediction of underground gas storage user gas flow nominations

Teresa Kurek, Konrad Wojdan, Konrad Świrski

Abstract


Many companies operating on the natural gas market use natural gas storage to balance production and transport capacities with major variations in gas demand. This paper presents an approach to predicting users' gas flow nomination in underground gas storage by different users.  A one-year prediction horizon is considered with weekly data resolution. Basic models show that whereas for the great majority of users we can predict nomination based only on weather data and technical parameters, for some users additional macro-economic data significantly improved prediction accuracy. Various modeling techniques such as linear regression, autoregressive exogenous model and Artificial Neural Network were used to develop prediction models. Results show that for most users an Artificial Neural Network provides optimal accuracy, indicating the non-linearity of the relationship between input and output variables. The models developed are intended to be used as support for facility operation decisions and gas storage product portfolio modifications.


Keywords


underground gas storage, long term forecasting, artificial neural networks, prediction models, demand forecasting

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